NBA Playoffs Thoughts…

Andrew Upshaw

A week in the playoffs and a lot of crazy ish has happened. Last year’s MVP went down with a torn ACL which dashed the Bull’s chances of winning the title. The D Rose-less Bulls are struggling to beat the eighth seeded Sixers and are now down 3-1 in the series. Sucks. The defending champs are also out of it getting swept by the Thunder. The Mavs loss reminds me of the Laker’s loss to them last year. The first couple of games were games they should have won and after they got down 2-0 they just didn’t have anything left in the reserve tank. They didn’t take their game to another level during “winning time”, unlike the Thunder who were ready and motivated. If the Thunder meet the Lakers in round 2 it will be interesting.

The Heat have a chance to knock the Knicks out in a few minutes. It’s been a disappointing series form an entertainment stand point. The Heat are just better, which we already knew. The hope was that Melo would put the Knicks on his back a win a game or two for them. He had a good game 2, but the Knicks lost anyway and he’s been terrible in the other two Knicks losses. I think he’ll show up big in game four, the thing is, the Heat might still win because they’re better. Melo and people’s negativity toward him are starting to become Lebron-like, I’ve been hearing a lot lately about him being overrated and people have mentioned that he has one of the worst winning percentages in the playoffs. There’s enough to write an entire post on it but in regards to THIS year’s Knicks team it’s not fair. In many people’s eyes Amare Stoudemire fucked up breaking his hand and really hurt the Knicks. The thing is, he’s fallen off hard this year. We don’t know if it’s because he’s been banged up or out of shape or if he’s just not as good as he used to be. We won’t really know until next year. Then theres Jeremy Lin, if he hadn’t gone down this Knicks team would be more equipped to win in the playoffs. But STILL, they’d lose to the Heat. Next year if Melo plays to hits potential all year, Jeremy Lin continues to be an above average point guard, Amare finds his game, and Chandler and the role player roll then the Knicks will be a very good team. But that’s NEXT year.

Their opponents the Heat have the best shot in the East and now won’t have to play Chicago. On paper, their path the Finals will be easy. They’ll probably face Boston next round who might challenge them. I just don’t see Indiana or Philly challenging the Heta and I don’t see anybody in the East beating them. In the finals, though the Heat will be tested and my not even be the favorites depending on who they play. They’ll want to be playing their best ball in those finals so who ever they play on the way they’ll be going extra, extra hard. I’m waiting for the Boston-ATl and the Indiana-Orlando series to be over already. The Boston -Atl series hasn’t been bad, I just feel like Boston should beat Atlanta easily with Josh Smith hurt. I refuse to watch any of the Indiana-Orlando series.

The Spurs are the West’s version of the Heat, except their path to the Finals will be a hell of a lot harder. They’ve beat down the Jazz like they beat down every one else during the second half of the season. Next round the Spurs will have to go through either The Clippers or The Grizzlies, and after that they’ll play either OKC or the Lakers (or Devener? nah). That should be challenging to say the least but man, do the Spurs look great right now. The best series at the moment is that Grizziles-Clips match up which the Clips barely leading 2-1 thanks to a miraculous comeback in game 1 and a non-miraculous come back in game 3. Chris Paul is the best clutch player in the game and that matters. The Grizzlies have held leads going in to crunch time in every game and that matters too. As KG would say this series is a BAR FIGHT!!!!!

The Lakers play game 4 against Denver later tonight. In the first two games the Lakers looked as good as they have all season. In the first quarter of game 3, they looked as bad as they have all year. Denver is not a joke, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they made this series competitive. I still expect the lakers to win the series though. There’s been a lot of talk about Kobe and Bynum and whether or not Kobe shoots too much and if Bynum should get the ball more and such. While I do think that Kobe has a tendency to shoot too much (he’s been like that his entire career) I’m not sure if Bynum really needs the ball more. Bynum’s scoring at the same rate he did in the regular season and the lakers’ offense has been great in their wins. As great as Bynum is he not only has to share the ball with Kobe, he also has to share the ball with Gasol, who by the way is  a great, unselfish player. Ramon Sessions is pretty good too. The focus on Kobe and Bynum is dumb,  the Lakers are a better team when their big men and role players are involved offensively. In game 3 Kobe started out hot and was the only Laker doing anything. The Lakers got back in the game thanks to their big men and couldn’t get over the hump as Kobe missed a million shots in a row. For the Lakers to win the title they’ll need Kobe to know when to get his big mean involved and when to take over. Kobe’s been doing this a while so chill out.

A quick note on Bynum: Grantland did  great profile on him earlier this week. The main theme is that Andrew Bynum is the realest NBA player in the game. He doesn’t spit out cliches or kiss ass, he tells it like it is. He admitted to the LA Times that he didn’t try very hard in game three, which is hilarious or troubling if you want to look at this in a simple minded way. Most pro athletes don’t try hard all he time they get tired and lazy from time to time. When Bynum doesn’t try you can really tell and if you can’t, he’ll tell you himself. Kobe tries hard to score but he definitely does lag on defense form time to time and gets little to no flack from the media because of his rep. So the simple-minded shouldn’t judge Bynum too harshly for being real, but the lakers are way better team when he tries hard he whole game.

Grantland on Andrew Bynum

NBA SUNDAY Thoughts

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The NBA half-way point

Andrew Upshaw

The ALL-Star game is here already so this means we’re at the half way point in the season. At this point the best teams are the Heat, The Bulls, and Thunder which is no surprise. Lebron has been the best player in the league by far and is almost guaranteed to win the MVP award. The biggest surprise has been Jeremy Lin. He came out of nowhere and is now the biggest story in the league by a wide margin. The Knicks are now the most closely watched team in the league and will be for the second half of the season. They have a good look at the playofs and it will be interesting to see how they play if and when Melo and STAT live up to their superstar billings. If they do and Jeremy Lin continues to shine the Knicks will be a dangerous team in the playoffs.

Damnnn the Knicks looked BAD against Miami and Miami looked dominant. Its still too early to make judgements about either team. The Heat dominated and have dominated a lot of teams lately. Jeremy Lin had his first bad game of the season. He was 1-11 shooting with 8 turnovers. Thats BAD. Did he get exposed or was this just a bump in the road? We don’t know he most likely will bounce back and learn from this moment. The Knicks also should get better right? Melo and Stat still haven’t really played well  yet. At some point they pull their shit together right? They have plenty of time to figure it out in the second half of the season but yeah, they better get it together, they need some one besides Jeremy Lin to lead the charge.

Lebron, D Wade and the Heat have to like the fact that the spotlight is off of them for the moment. Last year they were the most heavily scrutinized team in the league. Hell, maybe the most heavily scrutinized team of all time and they played like it. This year the Heat seem more relaxed and as a result Lebron is having his best season ever, which is saying something. It will be interesting to see if Lebron has an extra gear come playoff time. The Heat have to be the favorites at this point but they’re not head and shoulders above the rest of the league yet. D Wade has missed some time with injuries but if he returns to peak form watch out. The Bulls have a shot with their great defense but they still don’t have another scorer behind D Rose. But then again, did Dallas have a star behind Dirk last year. Chicago has guys like Boozer and Deng who can hit big shots a la Jason Terry or J.J Barea for the Mavs last year and they’ll be motivated to avenge that playoff loss last year.

In the West things are up in the air. OKC is the best team but they’re young as hell and experience wins in the playoffs. Also, it seems like some teams might improve drastically in the second half. The Clippers were put together at the last second before the season started so they have a lot of room to grow. San Antonio has the second best record out west thanks to Tony Parker’s great play and really solid role players (the type that the Lakers don’t have!) like Gary Neal, Tiago Splitter, and Matt Bonner as well as Tim Duncan. Ginobli has pretty much missed the entire season and he’s arguably their best player. A healthy Spurs team is not to be fucked with. They absolutely could come out of the Western Conference. Dallas has taken the season at a leisurely pace, slowly working themselves into it. Except for Lamar Odom ( what the hell?), they have starting to come on as of late (Dirk especially). They beat OKC last year and can do it again at full strength. Then there’s the Lakers who have three great players and a bunch of shit surrounding them (sorry Derek Fisher, I really like you, thanks for all of those clutch shots you’ve hit over the years). They beat Dallas and OKC this week and at their best they can still beat any body. First they have to make the playoffs and Portland, Denver, Memphis, Houston and Minnesota(kinda) all are right there in the playoff chase. And some of them have had injury issues of their own and may a lot better in the second half.

All right the Lakers lost to OKC. I though they had a shot at winning for the first 58% of the game. Only 42% to go! Man did OKC look 1000x more athletic than the Lakers. Kobe didn’t just have a bad shooting game, OKC smothered him and all of the Lakers except Gasol. That’s why you don’t trade Gasol. They need to make a trade though. Use that trade exception for an athletic player or two.

So yeah, an exciting, messy first half of the season. The second half should be (hopefully) less messy but even more exciting as the stakes get higher.

Stars don’t Win Games, Teams Do

Stars drive the NBA’s bottom-line. Stars are the reason that the fans tune in. Stars can make a team matter nationally. But stars alone are not enough to win games. Last year the Heat acquired Lebron James and Chris Bosh to play alongside Dwayne Wade. Lebron predicted not 6, not 7, not 8, but 9 championships. After a year and a half the Heat are still stuck on 0. In last year’s NBA finals the Heat lost a close series to the Dallas Mavericks, who only have ONE star in Dirk Nowinski. The Heat’s struggles last year were exaggerated mainly because people hate them, they still made the Finals. But Lebron had to be surprised at how hard winning a championship actually was/is. Lebron had never played with any stars in the NBA before and he assumed that he Wade and Bosh would win easily. Lebron didn’t take into account that the NBA is not 3 on 3 and that his supporting cast was weak as hell. The Mavericks on the other hand, were deep with good-pretty good- to decent players behind Dirk. They weren’t as top-heavy in talent as the Heat but had  talent evenly distributed throughout their roster. This year the Heat’ supporting cast is a little better but still not that great. The Heat once again are one of the best teams in the league and Lebron is playing at level higher than any one else right now. The Heat have as good a shot as anyone to win a championship. But they’re gonna need  players outside their big three to play well and hit some big shots down the stretch in the playoffs.

Inspired by the Heat other teams have sought to win by acquiring new stars. The Knicks have paired Amare Stoudimire and Carmelo Anthony together but have struggled and were only 10-15 until jeremy Lin went off. Melo had been hurt and Amare hasn’t been himself but the Knicks roster after their third best player Tyson Chandler isn’t great. Jeremy Lin has provided some hope for Knicks fans and we’ll see how Lin plays once Melo and STAT come back into the lineup. The Lakers bought into the hype and tried to trade for Chris paul only to have David Stern shut them down. The Lakers also would like to trade Bynum for Dwight Howard. That would be great but it wouldn’t erase their weaknesses. The Lakers already HAVE stars. Kobe’s a star. Gasol is a lesser star. And Bynum is an emerging star. The Lakers are 15-12 with three stars. They don’t even know who their fourth best player is. Derek Fisher is in the starting line-up. Steve Blake was SORELY missed during his come bad from injury. Really. The Lakers don’t need another star they need players to put around the stars they already have. Dwight Howard instead of Bynum would make the Lakers better, but so would improving the supporting cast. A supporting cast that they fucked up by trading Lamar Odom for nothing. To a Western Conference rival in the Mavericks! What in the hell were they thinking! Tonight before he destroyed them, Mike Brown let it slip that the Lakers could have signed Jeremy Lin before the season. Words do not describe my anger right now.

A lot of people passed on Lin. Stars are usually easy to spot. Great role players are harder to notice. Lin might be a true star but even if he’s not he’s still gonna be a very good NBA player even if he doesn’t average 25 a night. Sometimes players get better and better once they enter the league and sometimes not. Scottie Pippen, Manu Ginobli and Steve Nash all hard interesting routes to stardom. No one predicted their later greatness when they entered the league. The teams who were smart enough to see their talent reaped the benefits. The teams who gave into conventional wisdom lost out. Most teams can handle what they know. Lebron James is great. Kobe is great. Teams are going o pay those guys. Maybe if I get a bunch of great players my team can win. Well, yeah. But when it comes to putting great ices around those stars most team fall short. The 2011 Dallas Mavericks would not have won if it wasn’t for J.J Barea. The 2010 Lakers would not have won if it hadn’t been for Derek Fisher an Ron Artest (who both suck now). Those Shaq-Kobe 2000s Lakers would not have won without Brian Shaw, Robert Horry and yes, Derek Fisher again. Jordan and his dominant Bulls relied heavily on a crazy Dennis Rodman and needed three-point shooting from Steve Kerr and John Paxson. Without them, they would not have won 6 championships. There are plenty of teams this year stacked with stars. The Thunder also have 3 in Durant, Westbrook, and to a lesser extent James Harden, but they’re gonna need their role players to play big down the stretch. Every player matters and stars can’t win alone.

Links:

John Holliger wrote a very similar post on Big Threes in the NBA: his is probably better than mine.

Big Threes in the NBA

Kevin Ding wrote about Jeremy Lin and what he means to Taiwanese-Americans. Kevin Ding is good.

See Jeremy Lin’s impact through the inspired eyes of a child