Andrew Upshaw
At this point in the season we should a good indication of what teams are capable of wining the title. It’s been a weird season but there are a handful of teams that have established themselves as true title contenders. A title contender should have shown championship form by this point in the season by going on a killer stretch (like San Antonio has recently) or by being mad consistent (Chicago and OKC). I’m going to break down who I think the contenders are and then throw in a few wild-cards that may have a puncher’s chance.
MAD CONSISTENT:
The Chicago Bulls:
The Bulls have held it down all year with or without their best player in Derrick Rose. They are at advantage because they are basically the same team as last year (this is a theme among the contenders). They know each other very well and they play amazing defense night in and night out. Along with the Spurs they are the best coached and the best executing team in the league. They have the best record in the league for the second straight year and the best point differential at 7.8. They are also extremely deep. The questions with them are the same ones from last year: who do they have as a secondary scorer behind Derrick Rose? They have Boozer and he’s been playing much better this year but he has to come through consistently during the playoffs. The other question is how do they deal with their bench advantage going away slightly in the playoffs? In the playoff teams play their best players the whole game and Chicago’s depth becomes less of a factor. A D-Rose-less Chicago team dominated lesser teams during the regular season but in the postseason their won’t have weak opponents to feast on and the best teams will be playing their best players. Chicago’s main concern is offense, they did add Rip Hamilton but he’s old and he’s been hurt all year. All of that said Chicago has to like their chances this year. Last year they were young and inexperienced and this year they look slightly better. They had a fall off in the playoffs last year and in my opinion didn’t give everything they had. If they play as well as they’re capable come playoff time, they’re for real.
OKC Thunder:
They’ve had the best record in the West since day one. Durant is a super star. Absolutely one of the three best players in the league. Westbrook is also a top ten player. They’re both having great seasons (Durant is second in the league in scoring and third in PER, Russ is eighth in PER) and they’re hungry and deperate to play better in the playoffs. James Harden is a great third option ( 21 PER) whose style is similar to Manu Ginobli. Their supporting cast is decent but flawed. Serge Ibaka is their next best player whose provides rebounding and shot blocking and points here and there. Their other players don’t score at all really. I think they’re meant to be defense minded guys and they’re an ok defensive team, but they’re winning because they’re the best offensive team in the league despite their lack of scoring options outside of their bid three. I n the playoffs it will be interesting to see how their stars play. Durant had a great playoffs last year but Westbrook struggled a bit. I think that Westbrook is more comfortable with his role this year and more immune to the stupid criticism he gets. They have a really high ceiling and look to be a lock to play in the Western Conference finals. But…they’re still so young. Many experts still think they’re year away from really competing for a title. Its crazy but feel like Durant can step his game up even more. He scores so easily but he still has trouble getting open from time to time. He reminds me of a young Lebron before he became the best in the league. He’s great and he knows it but will he prove it every night? We’ll see (Kendrick Perkins is a punk. He’s also not good at all He’s so not good thats he’s not worth mentioning but i personally don’t like him and wanted to single him out) .
KIND OF UP AND DOWN, BUT MANNNNNN….
Miami Heat:
The Heat have been under the radar compared to last year when every one was out for blood. At times this year they have looked head and shoulders above the rest of the league and at times they’ve struggled causing people (mostly stupid) to question them and more specifically Lebron James (please stop). Lebron James is having a great season and will probably will the MVP award. He was on pace to have the best season ever by PER and advanced metrics standards but has fallen off slightly while remaining way better than any one else in the league. Lebron has also been the only Heat star to play the whole year as D Wade and Bosh have missed some time here and there. Largely, the Heat stayed on track during the time their stars were out. D Wade is still D Wade ( he’s second in the league in PER behind lebron) and Chris bosh is still and all-star level third option. The team is more relaxed and comfortable with themselves and their coach this year. Their supporting cast still sucks but I think its slightly better than last year which sucked ass. Their only big flaw that can hurt them playoff time is mental. It might not even be their flaw but our flaw in judgement. lebron fell off in the finals and in a few other clutch spots in his career. It happens to every one even great players (except Jordan. He came through every time from 1991-1998). its in our head at this point. It might be in lebron’s head at this point we don’t know. It might not even matter( in every series they play in lebron will be the best player, but his only real rival in the league is his teammate Dwayne Wade). While these two guys play together the Heat have to be the favorites to win the title.
UP AND COMING
San Antonio Spurs:
The Spurs are the hottest team in the league by far and now have caught up with OKC in the standings. People have wrote this team off time and again as too old. Tim Duncan has been past his prime for a while and they’ve yet to seriously contend without Tim as they best player. But really when healthy, they’ve always been there. Last year they were the 1 seed and the West and went down to the 8th seeded Memphis in the first round. But Manu was hurt in that series and he was arguably their best player. This year Manu has missed almost all of the season and Parker has been their best player. Now that Manu is back you have to take this team seriously. They have the best coach in the league in Greg Popivoch and they have a great big three with a really solid supporting cast. The minutes for Manu and Parker will go up in the playoffs as will their chances of winning another title. Tim Duncan has some great games left in him too. Injuries have derailed them far too much in recent years but if they’re healthy they’re scary.
WILD-CARDS:
Here are three other teams that have a shot.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES:
Some how Marc Gasol fooled people into thinking he was better than Pau just by being bigger and acting tougher and was named to the all-star team. He’s been good tough and the team has been solid without their best player Zach Randolph. Z-Bo is working himself into shape and the team is hot as of late. thy’ve won their last 3 games and 8 of their last 10. If Z-Bo can get back to the level he was at last year, this is a serious contender. They might not have enough time this year to get every one clicking with each other but if they do, watch out.
BOSTON CELTICS:
They look washed up earlier this year, mainly due to their Big 3. But it looks like their were just out of shape because they’re on fire since the all-star break. offensively they’re still not that great, but defensively they’ve been amazing recently. Historically amazing. According to John Hollinger in today’s Per Diem column their defense efficiency in the past 15 is 92.9 points per 100 possessions which is 10 point better than the league average. In 2008 when they won the championship their defense was 8 points better than the league average. so yeah, they’re for real. If they can play that great of defense in the playoffs against Miami and Chicago they have a pucncher’s chance to recreate they’re magic from 2010. For more info about this read Hollinger’s Per Diem which unfortunately isn’t free.
Los Angeles Lakers:
Unlike every other team in this list, the lakers have never really clicked or gotten hot for an extended stretch of time. They don’t even know who they are. Early in the season they slowed it down and won with defense, since they’ve gotten Ramon Sessions they’ve been the best offensive team in the league. They also have changed a lot from last year ( new coach, new system, the emergence of Andrew Bynum and the loss of Odom) and in the season ( the trade for Sessions and loss of Fisher). They no doubt have a great championship core with Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, and now Ramon Sessions. But they just started playing together recently and haven’t really gotten to practice with each other. As a Laker fan I can’t really judge the make up of this team until next year. But still, NO ONE wants to play them in the playoffs. Their Big 3 is as good as any one else’s in the league and ow with Ramon Sessions they have a big four to rival any one else. Their bench is terrible, hands down the worst of any title contender ( Matt Barnes is good though) but it’s less of a problem in the playoffs when the stars play the whole game. Fatigue and injury is probably their biggest weakness at this point. Their big three have played a lot of minutes this year and haven’t broken down really. Their best players will have to play at their peak levels in the postseason. Fortunaley they may be more rested come playoff time. The playoff schedule is wayyy easier than this crazy regular season in which teams play four or five times a week. The lakers will get more off days in the postseason to rest their old( Kobe, Gasol) and vulnerable (Bynum) bodies. Hopefully a rested Laker team can recapture their good defense from earlier in the season and combine it with their good offense since they’ve acquired Sessions. If that happens they have a shot.
4 HOOPS HEADS 